Start With a Number You'd Act On
The simplest test for a target price: if the product hit that number today, would you open your wallet? The answer should be yes. If you'd hesitate, the target is too high. If you'd jump on it but think you could probably get a better deal, the target is too low.
Avoid setting targets based on what you wish the product cost. A target's job is to fire when something genuinely useful happens, not when an unrealistic discount appears. The closer your target is to a price the product actually reaches, the more often it'll trigger and the more useful the alerts become. A target that never fires is the same as no tracker at all.
Anchor to Recent Lows, Not List Prices
Retailer-displayed list prices are often inflated reference points. A "list price" of $199 on a product that's sold consistently at $149 for the past year doesn't tell you anything useful. Setting a target as "20% off list" in that case means waiting for $159 — which the product was already at — and the alert never fires because the price was already there.
Anchor to actual recent prices instead. If your tracker has been watching a product for a few weeks, look at the lowest price it's hit; setting your target slightly above that (say, within $5-10) usually produces alerts that match the natural rhythm of the product's sales. If you're new to a product and don't have history yet, a quick search across retailers gives you the current market price spread, which is more useful than any list price.
Use Percentage Patience by Category
Different categories warrant different patience. As a rough guide: high-margin electronics like TVs and laptops can comfortably target 15-25% below the most common selling price during a sale window. Apparel and home goods often see deeper cuts — 30-40% off list during clearance is normal. Apple products, designer goods, and most premium brands rarely move more than 10-15% off the typical street price.
These aren't rules; they're starting heuristics. Within any category, popularity, supply, and the manufacturer's pricing strategy all matter. A best-selling iPad model might never see more than a $50 discount; a model that's been replaced and is being phased out can drop $200 in the same sale. The history on your specific tracker, once it has a few weeks of data, beats any general percentage rule.
When to Stay Patient
Some products are worth waiting longer for. Outgoing-generation electronics in the months after a successor launches, seasonal items in their off-season, and clearance items at the end of a product cycle all reward patience with deeper discounts. If you don't need the product immediately, setting an aggressive target and being willing to wait several months can pay off significantly.
The risk of over-patience is that the product sells out before your target hits. This is most common for popular outgoing models — once retailers' remaining inventory clears, the product is just gone, and the next time you see something similar it'll be at the new model's full price. Reading the situation matters: an end-of-cycle product is patient territory; a hot product that's still in active production usually isn't.
When to Loosen the Target
If a target hasn't triggered for a month and you're starting to need the item, raising the target is the right move. Trackers reward iteration — your first guess is rarely the best one, and adjusting based on observed behavior is what turns a tracker into a useful tool rather than a forgotten feature.
The tell that a target is too aggressive: the product's price has been bouncing in a range that's entirely above your target, with no sign it's going to drop. If the lowest price in the past month was $89 and your target is $69, the alert isn't going to fire unless something unusual happens. Loosening the target to $84 produces an alert at the next sale; you can always lower it again later if you change your mind.
Targets vs No-Target Tracking
Setting a target isn't required. A tracker without a target falls back to alerting on any meaningful downward move, which is useful when you don't have a specific number in mind but want to know when something interesting happens.
A common pattern: track a product for two or three weeks with no target, get a sense of the natural range from the dashboard history, and only then set a target once you know what "good" looks like. This is more reliable than guessing at a target before you have any data, and it tends to produce alerts that actually match what you'd consider a good moment to buy.